Ark Invest AI and Other Technology Growing to $200 Trillion by 2030

Cloud computing

Ark Invest has their Big Ideas report for 2023. The market value of disruptive innovation platforms could scale 40% at an annual rate during this business cycle, from $13 trillion today to $200 trillion by 2030.

Five convering technologies will define this decade.

1. Artificial Intelligence
2. Robotics
3. Energy Storage
4. Public Blockchains
5. Multiomic Sequencing

AI, specifically neural networks, is the heart of the change. AI overlaps with blockchain. AI accelerates multiomic sequencing. AI is key to robotics and energy storage.

Deep neural networks enable more accurate long-read DNA sequencing. They have already reduced errors by 59% in the last two years.

iPhones have 12 watt-hours of power in 2023 which is triple the power from 2008. Teslabot will rapidly grow AI capabilities and will start with 2000-4000 watt hours of power. A Teslabot is 200X iPhone.

Ark Invest is projecting an extra economic doubling by 2040. This is how I define a level one Singularity. Extra economic doublings are real technology acceleration.

Ark Invest sees AI training costs dropping by 10 every 2 years. What cost $4.5 million to train in 2020 cost $450,000 in 2022 and will cost $30 in 2030.

AI coding assistants like Copilot could increase the output of software engineers ~10-fold by 2030.

People are trying to master using Dall-E and ChatGPT to enhance websites and create monetizable content.

SpaceX Starlink

SpaceX will put up Gen2 satellite network with satellites 850-1000 kilogram with up to 80 gbps capacity per satellite versus 18 gbps in current version 1. ~30,000 satellite Starlink Gen2 constellation as proposed would have a total instantaneous bandwidth of at least 500 terabits per second (Tbps) over land (~1800 Tbps including ocean coverage). As of 2020, the total installed bandwidth of global internet infrastructure was estimated to be 600 Tbps. SpaceX Starship could lower satellite costs another 40-fold to ~$1,000/Gbps during the next five years. According to ARK’s research, 1 Gbps can serve 200 customers. At a capital cost of ~$1,000/Gbps, SpaceX could recoup its Starship investment with a one-time charge of $5 per customer. Ark is estimating that 500 terabits per second over land can serve 100 million customers with high bandwidth internet.

The direct to unmodified cellphone Starlink satellite service will be able to provide everyone on Earth (8 billion) with text and voice and basic 1G or 2G internet with no deadzones.

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